Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. President has no right to express opinion on legality of LG polls: AKD Sri Lanka Daily Mirror 02:32 25-Feb-23. Something went wrong, please try again later. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon.. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Our current polling average is based on polls by Savanta ComRes (fieldwork completed May 4). Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds. Notable recent election polls This analysis has drawn on the latest opinion polls that were specific to Wales and Scotland respectively. YouGov found . At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" In the first three weeks of her premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives extended to 11%. Please check you have typed it correctly. However as the Scottish parliament became fully operational in Edinburgh, support for independence initially waned, trending around 30% in the first decade of the twentieth century. Most polling companies listed here are members of the . However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023 and it will rise to 14% by 2024. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Sturgeon Still Scotland's Most Popular Politician Despite 12% Margin Against Independence, Lesley Riddoch: A Nordic solution to Scotlands invisibility within the UK, Tories could be reduced to third UK party, shock opinion poll warns, Nicola Sturgeon responds to popularity rating drop amid trans prisoner row. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. You can also SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER . Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit". With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polling returns, including the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the Covid pandemic in Scotland and party leadership changes. Analysis pieces written by YouGov's data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. 23% 22 Feb: PeoplePolling: GB News UK In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Scottish independence. on public opinion. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to move south during Monday followed by frequent snow and hail showers, Ken Bruce leaves BBC with veiled jibe after they ended his show early over concerns was free advertising for a rival, The 72-year-old Glaswegian left Radio to join Greatest Hits Radio in April after the Beeb told him to step down 17 days early, Teaching strikes held off as union on brink of striking pay deal. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? We will not share your email address with any third parties. The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. Redfield and Wilton (26 February) which placed Labour on 51%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the December 2019 general election are listed here . The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Charities & not-for-profit. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Polling aggregator Stats for Lefties has calculated that, if this poll were repeated in a general election, the Tories would win just 17 seats behind Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Latest news on Scottish Opinion Polls, including political opinion polls, voting intention polls, and opinion poll analysis. Sponsors of pro-Obi opinion polls creating grounds for post-election violence. Should religious people be allowed to hold top political jobs? Exclusive: Scottish Labour blasted the Scottish Government for their inaction in trying to get rid of dangerous Grenfell-styling cladding on buildings across the country. State of the Nation. backed Scotland becoming an independent country. All Rights Reserved. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Stay informed. Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. Related: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. A YouGov poll published this morning (2 March) makes encouraging reading for the Prime Minister. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. All Rights Reserved. Labour would be nipping at their heels with 22 Scottish MPs, up from just one currently. @britainelects. Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. Following a lull in political activity over Christmas 2021, the Conservatives appeared to be recovering in early 2022, clawing back approximately half of the poll losses that they had seen before the festive period. ", Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years, Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Explore what the world thinks, discover our solutions, and join our community to share your opinion. It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. Another. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. About; Social . The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. Conservative support then fell by a further 6% as the first Downing Street party allegations emerged. YouGov poll, reported in the Telegraph on 31 Jan 2023Full results, The Times poll, conducted by YouGov, reported on 21 Jan 2023, Wings Over Scotland/The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 19 Dec 2022: Why do SNP voters hate women?, The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 17 Dec 2022, The Times poll, reported on 16 Oct 2022Full results. The YouGov poll released on Monday night put the lead for the no campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month. The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. conducted. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? BBC Scotland Gender Recognition Act Poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes, reported by the BBC 17 Feb 2022Full Results I DataMain findings: 57% would support making the process to acquire a gender recognition certificate easier but that support dropped when asked about specific proposals. Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. But we can't do it without you. Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. The poll, commissioned by WalesOnline has found support for the Tories in Wales now sits at just 19%. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? It found 72% of voters - including 69% of those who voted Tory in 2019 -. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunak's party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. Please click 'Create Account and Subscribe' to create a new account and subscribe to our email alerts. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. The latest Panelbase survey. Read more, Editorial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected], Commercial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected]. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. Support for Scottish independence has grown steadily over the last forty five years. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. Entering the summer, levels of Conservative support took a sudden 3% hit following the resignation of then health secretary, Matt Hancock, in June 2021. The exclusive poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, has support for Yes at its lowest level since just before the 2019 general election, which saw Boris Johnson's Conservative party earn an . Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. READ MORE: Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action. Yahoo News / YouGov polls . A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" A poll of more than 1,000 people . Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting budget. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" In early March 2023, the Labour Party continue to consolidate their substantial lead over the Conservatives, one which is now trending at 21%.. Polling averages extrapolated in the 3 weeks to 2 March place Labour on 47.3%, the Conservatives on 26.8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9.3%.